U.S. Class I rail traffic growth decelerated in the 32nd week of the year, according to Goldman Sachs data released Friday. Total carload volumes rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from a 5.7% increase in week 31, as intermodal shipments climbed 3.0% compared with 6.5% growth the previous week. Non-intermodal volumes advanced 1.7%, easing from a 4.8% gain in week 31.
Among major U.S. carriers, Union Pacific led intermodal growth at 8.0% year-over-year, while Norfolk Southern reported a 0.5% increase and CSX remained flat. In non-intermodal categories, CSX posted the strongest performance with 4.4% growth, followed by Union Pacific at 1.7%. Norfolk Southern’s non-intermodal volumes contracted 1.1%.
Canadian rail traffic showed a stronger trend, with total carload growth accelerating to 7.3% year-over-year from 3.6% in week 31. Canadian National’s carloads rose 4.8%, supported by an 8.3% gain in non-intermodal volumes, though intermodal volumes grew just 0.3%. CPKC reported the strongest Canadian performance, with total carloads up 10% year-over-year, driven by a 17% surge in intermodal volumes and a 5.7% increase in non-intermodal shipments.
Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Class I rail coverage now projects total carload growth of 3.5% year-over-year for the third quarter of 2026, with intermodal volumes expected to rise 5.1% and non-intermodal volumes up 1.9%. For the combined Canadian operations of Canadian Pacific and Canadian National, the bank forecasts total carload growth of 1.6% year-over-year in Q3 2026, with intermodal volumes down 1.0% and non-intermodal volumes up 3.4%.
