The Trump administration has tempered expectations of reaching a tariff agreement with Canada before a midnight deadline, with U.S. officials privately assessing the likelihood of a deal as no better than a coin flip. The 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods remain scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, following a Monday phone call between President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
U.S. negotiators presented what officials described as their "best offer" to Canada, with the Tuesday call between Trump and Carney serving as a final attempt to avert the duties. However, American officials viewed the outcome as unlikely, raising questions about whether the signals reflected genuine negotiation posture or strategic leverage-building. The administration has not indicated plans to delay the tariffs, though such a move remains a potential option to allow additional time for talks.
The standoff follows Trump’s second-term resumption of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, reversing elements of the North American trade agreement negotiated during his first presidency. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has stated he will retain all options to respond to new U.S. tariffs, including trade retaliation. Canadian negotiators warned U.S. counterparts that implementing Section 338 tariffs would provoke a public backlash in Canada and effectively end Carney’s ability to negotiate further concessions.
