A study commissioned by Swiss pharma industry group Interpharma estimates potential value-added losses of up to 194.5 billion francs for the sector by 2040 due to U.S. pharmaceutical policy. Conducted by BAK Economics, the analysis outlines multiple scenarios, with the most severe case projecting a 22.4% reduction in cumulative gross value added compared to a baseline trajectory.
The U.S. is Switzerland’s largest pharmaceutical export market, accounting for 29.3% of exports in 2025. The study highlights two primary risks: the relocation of production capacity to the U.S. and a new pricing framework implemented by the U.S. government. The latter includes the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) approach, which ties U.S. drug prices to those in other developed nations.
While direct price erosion in the U.S. is a concern, the indirect effects are projected to be more damaging. Pharma firms may delay or withhold new drug launches in other markets to offset lower U.S. prices, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the projected losses in the structural-break scenario. Interpharma noted that this mechanism is already impacting Switzerland, with seven of 22 innovative drugs failing to be submitted for inclusion in the national reimbursement list between January 2025 and June 2026—about a third of new medicines in that period.
Under the baseline scenario, annual growth in the Swiss pharma sector is expected to slow from 12.8% in 2015-2025 to 6.9% in 2025-2040. In the mildest alternative scenario, losses are projected at 27 billion francs, while a moderate scenario estimates 77.7 billion francs. The authors emphasize that the 194.5 billion franc figure does not represent a worst-case outcome.
