Analysts at Gordon Haskett have revised Street estimates for calendar 2026 across 22 restaurant companies, with 12 firms seeing forecasts either maintained or increased following second-quarter earnings. Nine companies received upward revisions while three saw no change, compared to 10 firms facing downward adjustments.
The most significant upgrades were applied to The Cheesecake Factory, Bloomin’ Brands, BJ’s Restaurants, and Starbucks, which saw revisions across same-store sales, earnings per share, EBITDA, and revenue. Conversely, Papa John’s, Wendy’s, Jack in the Box, Portillo’s, Wingstop, and Yum! Brands were among those facing broad-based reductions in estimates.
Over the trailing 12 months ended August 24, 2026, the restaurant sector recorded a 6% average share price gain, trailing the S&P 500’s 18% advance. Within the group, casual dining stocks outperformed, while fast-casual and pizza segments lagged. Same-store sales revisions showed the strongest correlation with share price movements, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.67 for combined metrics and 0.68 for same-store sales alone.
Gordon Haskett highlighted Dutch Bros, Domino’s Pizza, and Wingstop as undervalued based on the divergence between estimate trends and share price performance. The firm’s dataset included 22 restaurant companies, with 14 seeing downward revisions over the past year. The largest 12-month downgrades were applied to Papa John’s, Portillo’s, Jack in the Box, Wendy’s, and Fireworks.
