A large share of sampled trading volume on Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets comes from a small set of recurring, fixed-dollar trade sizes, according to a CoinDesk analysis of the exchange’s public order data.
Trades valued within $2 of $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million in ether-perpetual transactions CoinDesk analyzed from Sept. 17 through Sept. 20. On bitcoin, two recurring sizes — roughly $2,500 and $5,000 — made up 54% of the $8.5 million in sampled volume over the same period.
The pattern predates the four-day sample. Across 43 of 46 one-hour samples between June 19 and Sept. 20, ether trades repeatedly clustered around specific dollar targets. The prevailing trade size accounted for about 45% of sampled value overall and more than half on 15 individual dates.
As ether’s price rose from approximately $1,700 to $2,500 during that span, the number of contracts per trade adjusted while the dollar target remained nearly fixed — a signature of automated execution strategies targeting predetermined notional values, known in trading as “clips.”
The target itself shifted over time. Trades clustered around $4,999 in early samples, while $9,999-sized trades accounted for 72% of sampled value on June 28. A $3,999 target appeared Aug. 10, followed by $4,499 on Aug. 18 and $5,499 on Aug. 24.
Bitcoin trades showed a similar dynamic. Two recurring sizes moved in near-lockstep as bitcoin’s price changed, with the larger trade staying almost exactly double the smaller. In 9 of 22 samples containing both, the ratio was exact; in the other 13, it differed by a single contract, consistent with rounding.
Kalshi’s ether perpetual also exhibited unusually heavy turnover relative to open interest. A snapshot on Sept. 20 showed roughly 93 million contracts of 24-hour volume against 1.5 million in open interest, yielding a volume-to-open-interest ratio of 61 — the second-highest among Kalshi’s 20 perpetual markets with open interest, compared with a median of about eight. The bitcoin contract’s ratio was 26.
High turnover alone does not necessarily indicate improper trading, but the concentration of volume in recurring trade sizes raises questions about how many distinct participants are driving the activity.
Kalshi, a U.S. derivatives exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, launched its cryptocurrency perpetual-futures markets in late May. Its public data does not identify traders or establish wrongdoing, and the exchange did not explain who produced the repeated trades or why their target values changed.
CoinDesk asked Kalshi whether one or several participants produced the repeating trade sizes, whether any were covered by market-making or incentive arrangements, and whether the exchange had found self-matching or common ownership among accounts. Kalshi had not responded by press time.
A rebate program filed with the CFTC took effect Sept. 16, reducing fees for certain firms to 0.003% and paying market makers an equivalent rebate. The program began one day before CoinDesk’s four-day sample but nearly a month after the recurring $5,499 trades first appeared, suggesting the rebate did not cause the pattern though it may have affected trading economics during the later sample.
Pseudonymous trader “Beni” raised the issue on X, accusing Kalshi of inflating crypto volume. Kalshi’s crypto head, posting as “IcoBeast,” disputed part of the argument, saying a volume-share chart Beni cited covered prediction markets rather than perpetual futures, and noted that Kalshi does not pay rebates on its crypto prediction markets.
