Barclays raised its United Kingdom net interest income outlook to about £8.2bn for 2026, within a guidance range of £8.1bn to £8.3bn, representing roughly a quarter of group income, as the bank reported continued earnings growth across its major divisions.
Group net interest income is projected to top £13.7bn, marking a fifth consecutive year of growth. The bank has deployed £25bn of its £30bn business-growth risk-weighted asset target over the past two and a half years. Capital returns totalled £9bn through buybacks in the first half, alongside a £1.2bn dividend, with two quarters remaining.
Barclays operates at the top end of its 13% to 14% CET1 ratio range and is planning against a 14% assumption. The U.K. economy features nominal GDP above 4%, among the highest in the eurozone, with real wages growing and corporate debt at an all-time low relative to output.
In the United States, consumer bank net interest margin improved by 2.5 percentage points and deposits grew more than 15%. The cost-to-income ratio sits in the mid-40s and is expected to move toward the low-40s. Retail customers represent nearly a quarter of the business mix. Cards growth was organic at 8%, with an average FICO score of 756. Barclays set a long-term target of approximately 5% annual lending growth and return on tangible equity above 20%.
The investment bank recorded first-half 2026 return on tangible equity of 15.5%, up from about 7% in 2023 and around 12% in 2026. Stable income covers approximately 80% of the cost base, rising from 30% to 40% previously. About 60% to 70% of investment bank fees originate in the United States, and roughly 70% of the division is markets-focused. Equity capital markets and mergers and acquisitions combined account for 7% of total investment bank income.
Technology spending is running elevated. Normal annual expenditure of £200mn to £300mn is supplemented by an extra £300mn in the second half of 2026, mostly personnel-related, bringing total annual spend to about £500mn. The expected cost-to-income ratio for 2026 is in the high-50s, moving toward the low-50s by 2028.
Barclays reported that cloud compute migration is substantially complete, with 80% of data moved to enterprise platforms and a target of 100% by the end of 2028. Contact-center AI reduced workload by 6,000 hours, and AI tools cut fraud-related inbound calls by roughly 20%.
On the regulatory front, Pillar 1 Basel clarity is expected in the second half of 2026, with implementation beginning in January 2027. U.S. Consumer Banking’s advanced internal ratings-based approach is scheduled for the second half of 2027.
U.K. loan growth reached 5% in the first half of 2026, and mortgage flow share for high loan values rose from 13% to 21%. Barclays gained market share in nine of the last ten quarters and holds the highest level of corporate deposits of any U.K. bank. The corporate loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 35% from 31%, well below peer ranges of 50% to 75%. The retail loan-to-deposit ratio stands at about 90%, with covered bond issuances totaling roughly £1bn in recent years.
The U.K. tax surcharge generates about £1bn in tax receipts for the Treasury, with each percentage point worth approximately £35mn to Barclays. At the time of the conference, Barclays’ ADR traded at $25.30, up 1.73%, with a market capitalization of $84.2bn and a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.79.
