RBC Capital has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI) shares, setting a price target of $121.00. The current trading price of $76.35 implies a potential upside of roughly 58% from the current level, according to the firm’s valuation framework.
The analyst’s projections for Ollie’s include a 19% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $1.17 for fiscal 2026, excluding an estimated $25–$35 million in tariff reimbursements that are expected to partially offset profitability pressures. Excluding these reimbursements, adjusted EPS is projected to rise 7% to $1.05. Consensus estimates place fiscal 2026 EPS at $1.13.
Comparable store sales are forecast to decline 1.0% for the year, a downgrade from the company’s prior guidance of 1.7% growth and below the consensus estimate of a 0.7% decline. The third-quarter performance is tracking a low single-digit percentage decline, with a negative impact of approximately 300 basis points attributed to the circular distribution calendar.
RBC’s price target is based on roughly 25 times its estimated 2027 adjusted EPS of $4.86, slightly below the consensus estimate of $5.03. The firm’s valuation reflects a premium to peers, citing Ollie’s operational efficiency and discount retail positioning.
Other analysts have adjusted their outlooks for Ollie’s in recent weeks. Piper Sandler estimates second-quarter comparable sales at 0%, while Truist Securities reduced its second-quarter comparable sales forecast to a 3% decline from a prior projection of 1% growth. KeyBanc lowered its price target to $98.00, and Truist Securities reduced its target to $80.00, both citing softer-than-expected sales momentum.
Ollie’s operates in the discount retail sector, competing with peers such as Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Dollar General. The company’s performance remains sensitive to consumer spending trends and supply chain dynamics, particularly in light of ongoing tariff-related cost pressures.
