Poland’s central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% through at least the end of 2026, according to a member of the Monetary Policy Council.
Iwona Duda stated that the baseline scenario remains for rates to stay unchanged through the remainder of this year, with no immediate need for tightening. The 10-member panel’s next meeting is scheduled for Sept. 8–9.
Duda emphasized that while current policy does not require adjustment, the council stands ready to act if incoming data suggests inflation expectations are becoming entrenched at elevated levels. She ruled out any near-term rate cuts, noting that discussions on monetary loosening would only resume once inflation consistently reaches the 2.5% target.
Inflation in Poland accelerated to a 14-month high of 3.4% in August, remaining within the central bank’s tolerance range of 1.5% to 3.5%. The bank’s policy rate has been held at 3.75% since March.
Risks to the inflation outlook include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, the expiration of government fuel price caps, and rising fertilizer costs. Loose fiscal policy further adds to these pressures.
