U.S. stock futures showed mixed signals on Wednesday as investors assessed Nvidia's earnings outlook and upcoming inflation data, with policy risks from the Federal Reserve remaining a key concern.
Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 42 points at 03:59 Brasília time, while S&P 500 futures were broadly flat. Nasdaq 100 futures, heavily influenced by tech performance, fell 0.1% to 25 points. The divergence reflected uncertainty ahead of Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter results, due after market close.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report quarterly revenue of $92.18 billion, nearly double the prior year's figure, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Investor attention is focused on the company's transition from its current-generation Blackwell chips to the upcoming Vera Rubin processors, as well as long-term sustainability concerns tied to AI infrastructure spending.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains fragile. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for July is expected to show a slight acceleration to 0.2% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in June, while the annual rate is projected to hold steady at 3.3%. Energy market volatility stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions continues to pose upside risks to inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that without sustained disinflation, a more restrictive monetary policy stance may soon be necessary. Markets have scaled back expectations for a September rate hike, but the Fed's cautionary tone suggests policymakers remain vigilant against persistent price pressures.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East added to market caution. A temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was agreed upon by Iran and Oman, though full reopening remains contingent on U.S. commitments under a June ceasefire deal. Preliminary data from Kpler, cited by CNBC, showed only five cargo ships transiting the strait, well below the 10-day moving average of 15 vessels. Prior to recent conflicts, the strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated, with Ottawa announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on approximately 700 U.S. products, affecting $20 billion in annual imports. Retaliatory measures are set to take effect on September 8, following the U.S. implementation of 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian exports over the weekend. The breakdown in negotiations between the two sides has heightened concerns about broader trade disruptions.
