NatWest Group presented its outlook at Barclays' 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference on 15 September 2026. Chief Executive Paul Thwaite highlighted a total income guidance of £17.9 billion for the full year, roughly £1.5 billion higher than the prior year and representing about 9% growth.
The bank said its return on tangible equity is approaching 20%, marking the fourth consecutive year above the 17% threshold and positioning NatWest as a sector leader. Cost‑income efficiency improved, with the ratio now just above 45% after falling from the mid‑60s in 2021. NatWest aims to push the ratio below 45% by 2028.
Capital generation reached 137 basis points in the first half of 2024, and the group projects more than 240 basis points for the full year. Net interest margin expanded by two basis points to a range of 241‑249 basis points in the latest quarter.
Customer assets and liabilities grew 5.3% in the first half of 2026, surpassing the medium‑term target of over 4%. Over the past seven years, lending, deposits and assets under management have averaged annual growth rates of 4.5%, 4% and 12% respectively.
The recent acquisition of Evelyn Partners, closed at the end of June 2024, is described as transformational. It more than doubled NatWest's assets under management, added 20% to fee income and lifted private‑banking and wealth‑management revenues to about 20% of the group. The deal also expanded the bank's market share in individual savings accounts to roughly 6%.
NatWest plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 40% to 50% and has moved share‑buyback programmes forward by six months, citing buybacks as the preferred method for returning surplus capital. The bank also announced the relocation of a data centre from Switzerland to the United Kingdom.
In a poll of conference attendees, respondents expected NatWest shares to outperform the broader European banking index over the next 12 months, identified net interest income as the primary earnings driver for the next 12‑18 months, and favored share buybacks as the preferred use of excess capital.
InvestingPro data shows NatWest trading at a price‑to‑earnings multiple of 9.36, with a 14% return on equity over the trailing twelve months, a 31% total return over the past six months and a dividend yield of 3.4%. Unsecured borrowing is now 30% lower in real terms than two decades ago.
