Melius Research increased its target price for Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) from $400 to $420 while keeping a "buy" rating. The firm also raised its fiscal 2029 earnings‑per‑share estimate to $21.11, implying a 20‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple.
Melius projects Nvidia could post EPS above $20 within two years and capture more than half of a $2 trillion total addressable market before 2030. The analyst cites a projected revenue growth rate of over 70% for the next year, following a 71% increase over the past twelve months and a current gross margin of 74%, down slightly from a prior 75% level.
In the most recent fiscal second‑quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $96.2 billion, more than double year‑over‑year and ahead of the $91.9 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2.22, surpassing Wall Street’s $2.08 forecast. For the October quarter, Nvidia guided revenue of $108 billion.
The company’s purchase commitments rose sharply to $279 billion from $119 billion, a 134% quarter‑over‑quarter jump, representing roughly ten quarters of cost of goods sold at the fiscal Q3 2027 run rate. Total commitments now stand at $366 billion, driven largely by memory demand. Nvidia plans to allocate more than 60% of free cash flow to shareholder remuneration and expects higher buybacks next year.
Melius also highlighted Nvidia’s new partnership with Amazon Web Services. Other analysts have adjusted their outlooks: Mizuho lifted its target to $315 and forecast FY2028 revenue near $700 billion; KeyBanc kept an above‑average rating with a $330 target; JPMorgan raised its target to $320; and BofA Securities maintained a "buy" stance with a $350 target and revised its FY2028 EPS estimate to $15.72.
