Matador Resources Co. (MTDR) projected free cash flow of approximately $900 million for 2026 at the 17th Annual Midwest IDEAS Conference in Chicago, up from earlier estimates of about $500 million at $55–$60 oil prices.
The Dallas-based independent oil and gas producer maintained its capital expenditure guidance of roughly $1.6 billion for 2026, unchanged from 2025 levels. Joe Foran, founder, CEO and largest individual shareholder, highlighted the company’s asset value approaching $10 billion, noting its origins as a $6 million startup in 2003 with initial funding of $5 million from Foran and $1 million from a partner.
Production growth is expected to accelerate to a 6% to 7% increase in 2026, following a 21% compound annual growth rate in oil output from 2021 through recent periods. Gas production remains steady at just above 0.5 billion cubic feet per day, with 50% to 70% of gas sales tied to the Waha hub.
Matador’s integrated midstream operations, conducted through its 51% owned San Mateo Midstream joint venture with Five Point Infrastructure, continue to expand. Gas processing capacity has grown from 60 million cubic feet per day to 720 million cubic feet per day, with annual EBITDA approaching $400 million in 2026. Analysts estimate San Mateo’s valuation between $3.2 billion and $4.8 billion using 8x to 12x EBITDA multiples.
Capital discipline remains central to the company’s strategy. Drilling and completion costs per lateral foot declined 12% year over year, while well execution improved by 10% to 15% through faster drilling and completion times. Maintenance capital is estimated to be $100 million to $200 million below current spending levels.
Shareholder alignment is reinforced by 86 insider purchases and no insider sales on Form 4 filings, alongside over 95% employee participation in the company’s stock purchase program. Management, entirely aged 50 or younger with over a decade of tenure, has repurchased about 1.8 million shares since April 2025 at an average price in the low $40s. The company’s P/E ratio stands at 9.43, with a 2.71% dividend yield and 20% growth in dividends over the past 12 months.
Chris Calvert, executive vice president and CFO, emphasized the focus on profitable growth rather than quarterly metrics. "We do not want to grow just for growth's sake," he stated. "Profitable growth at a measured pace has somewhat been our mantra."
Matador’s acreage base expanded by 17,000 net acres over the past year, with net revenue interest on BLM leases secured at 87.5%, above the basin average of 75%. Its reserve base exceeds 703 million barrels of oil equivalent, excluding recently announced Woodford formation reserves. The company’s operational footprint benefits from proximity to approximately 100 rigs operating within 8 to 10 miles of its infrastructure.
