Jefferies has upgraded its outlook for the U.S. trucking sector, citing accelerating carrier exits and reduced capacity despite a summer slowdown in freight demand.
The bank highlighted that tender rejections—a key measure of carrier capacity constraints—fell to roughly 13.5% in July from an 18% peak in June, though spot rates excluding fuel remained elevated at 46% above year-ago levels before easing 6% month-over-month in August. The year-over-year gain in spot rates also decelerated to 39%.
Trucking bankruptcies and exits have accelerated this year, with 42 carriers filing for bankruptcy in June and 40 in July. Quarterly exits in the second quarter reached 161, surpassing the prior record of 156 set in the first quarter. Year-to-date exits are up 12% compared with the same period last year, with approximately 95% of closures involving carriers generating less than $1 million in annual revenue.
The tightening capacity follows an emergency ruling by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in late 2025, which restricted non-domiciled commercial driver’s license issuance and renewals, contributing to the reacceleration of carrier exits. Analysts also noted firmer-than-expected containerized imports and historically lean inventory levels, alongside a July ISM Manufacturing PMI reading that signaled seven consecutive months of expansion.
Macroeconomic indicators, however, suggest softer demand. July retail sales declined 0.6% month-over-month—the first drop in nine months—while single-family housing starts fell to their lowest level since November 2022. The 30-year mortgage rate was cited as holding near 6.7%.
Jefferies’ upgrade reflects expectations that structural supply constraints will outweigh near-term demand weakness, supporting a more constructive view of the sector’s medium-term prospects.
