The resumption of open warfare between the United States and Iran late Tuesday has intensified pressure on Tehran to select a retaliatory response from a range of military, economic and asymmetric options.
Six months after hostilities began on February 28, Iran launched missile strikes targeting what it described as U.S. assets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq following fresh U.S. attacks. Since the conflict’s outset, Iran has repeatedly struck neighboring Gulf states, primarily focusing on U.S. military bases but also targeting energy infrastructure in response to prior U.S. strikes.
Among Iran’s most potent threats is the potential to disrupt global oil supplies. Former Revolutionary Guards chief and secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei warned that if the economic campaign against Iran persists, "not a single drop of oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz or from anywhere in the Persian Gulf." Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments, though tanker volumes remain severely depressed despite limited recent movements.
Iran’s regional allies have compounded supply risks. Houthi forces in Yemen have restricted Red Sea shipping through attacks and threats to blockade all Saudi Arabian shipping, which transports crude to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb strait adjacent to Yemen. Chinese shipping firms have begun rerouting vessels away from the Bab el-Mandeb, further tightening maritime trade routes.
Beyond direct military action, Iran has pursued cyber and covert strategies. British authorities reported that Iran-linked hackers disabled a small electricity station, while U.S. officials attributed cyber attacks on water plants in Minnesota to Tehran. Iran has not commented on the Minnesota allegations. Western security services also accused Iran of recruiting local operatives to conduct attacks or assassination attempts in Western countries, a claim Tehran has denied.
The conflict’s escalation follows a period of heightened tensions in August, including a drone strike near the Suez Canal and a vessel targeted off Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea oil terminal at Yanbu. Despite these incidents, over half of vessels continued transiting Red Sea shipping lanes in mid-August, though the overall volume remains constrained by persistent threats.
