Imperial Brands issued full-year cash-flow guidance of £2.2 billion or above at the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference, projecting a fourth straight year of positive net-revenue growth backed by high single-digit EPS gains from profit expansion.
CEO Lukas Paravicini said the company’s Strategy 2030 program is designed to deliver £320 million in total savings. Exiting factories in Langenhagen, Germany, and Taiwan will yield an annualized £100 million once completed by July 2027, while manufacturing-excellence initiatives across seven plants will add a further £25 million in annual benefits by year-end.
"In a company where every £100 you sell, £50 goes straight into profit, savings are very important," Paravicini said. "But the real nugget of the transformation is actually the fact that we can improve revenue by focusing on what matters, which is our consumers, by building those capabilities and infusing AI into this equation."
The company also detailed its capital-return plans. Shares retired since buybacks resumed in 2023 amount to roughly 20% of the outstanding float, with an additional 6% reduction expected this year. Dividend payments have been maintained for 30 consecutive years and the current yield stands at 6.6%. Planned capital expenditure for the full year is £350 million. Paravicini noted the low stock price cuts in his favor: "The silver line for a CEO when you have the share price, perhaps not where I had hoped and expected it to be, is you get more shares back for the same money."
In the United States, Imperial Brands has gained 185 basis points of market share over the past five years but lost 20 basis points in the first half. Cigarette volumes are down 5% year-to-date, inside the 8%–9% historical decline range. The firm launched Malibu to replace Crown, achieving distribution in 40,000 stores and capturing roughly 50 basis points of price share. A duty-drawback mechanism is expected to begin providing meaningful benefits in the second half of 2027, with a full-year effect coming in 2028.
Germany, previously shedding 80–100 basis points of share annually, has gained 40 basis points before leveling flat. A proposed excise increase originally set for September 2024 at €2 per stick pack was removed; a new hike confirmed for January 1, 2027, is now in the €0.50–€1.00 range, above the historical band of €0.30–€0.50.
U.K. volumes fell 15%–16% in the first half ahead of an October 1 vape tax. The company’s vape business is above 10% of the U.K. market, and its Zone nicotine-pouch product launched successfully.
Australia volumes dropped about 50% in the first half but account for less than 1% of Imperial Brands’ total volume. Africa is growing ahead of the group and represents about 10% of adjusted operating profit. The company re-entered Syria in January.
Next-generation products have posted double-digit sales growth for three consecutive years, ranking Imperial Brands as the fourth-largest player in the category. The firm surveys 220,000 consumers monthly to guide product development. On that position, Paravicini said: "We are not going to be the leaders in this domain. We are the fourth largest."
A partnership with Capgemini, launched in February, has already seen about 400 employees transferred. Logista continues to provide an average cash-pooling benefit of £2 billion to the parent company.
Imperial Brands shares traded near $33.09, close to their 52-week low of $33.24, with a P/E of 11.4 and a market capitalization of $25.5 billion.
