Iceland will hold a referendum on August 29 to decide whether to resume negotiations for European Union membership, a vote that could reshape the bloc's enlargement strategy and ease the path for Montenegro's potential 2028 accession.
EU diplomats indicate that a positive outcome in the referendum—where 46% of Icelanders currently support restarting talks versus 46% opposed, with 8% undecided—would demonstrate the EU's continued appeal and help overcome skepticism toward further expansion. Montenegro, with a population of approximately 620,000 and per-capita economic output trailing Iceland, has long sought EU membership, alongside Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova.
Analysts suggest pairing Iceland's accession process with Montenegro's could improve the chances of success. Steven Blockmans of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn noted that advancing both countries together would likely prove more effective than pursuing Montenegro's bid in isolation.
Iceland initially suspended EU accession talks in 2013 under a eurosceptic government, with disputes over fishing rights—particularly access to Iceland's economically vital fishing grounds—remaining a key obstacle. However, geopolitical shifts, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and former U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion of annexing Greenland, have prompted Iceland to reconsider its strategic position. Proponents argue EU membership could help address high living costs and strengthen Iceland's bargaining power in trade negotiations.
Even if talks are approved, any eventual accession would require a separate referendum, reflecting the country's divided public opinion. EU Commissioner Marta Kos estimates negotiations would take one to two years, expressing confidence in finding a compromise on fishing rights. 'I am confident we can work with EU member states to find creative solutions that respect both Iceland's sensitivities and those of our member states,' she stated.
The referendum outcome may set a precedent for other candidate countries, particularly as the EU weighs multiple enlargement decisions in the coming years.
