Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $5,400-an-ounce target for gold by the end of 2027 on Wednesday, even as it trimmed its near-term fair-value estimate following the Federal Reserve's decision to resume rate hikes.
Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas lowered the firm's year-end gold-price fair-value estimate to $4,650 an ounce from $4,900, while keeping the longer-dated outlook unchanged. Spot gold was trading around $4,350 an ounce at the time of the report.
Thomas said the impact of tighter monetary policy would mainly show up in a slower near-term appreciation path rather than a lower terminal price for gold. "We expect the impact of tighter monetary policy to be felt primarily through a slower near-term appreciation path rather than a lower terminal gold price," she wrote in a research note. "Conversely, a significantly more hawkish Fed path could generate a sharper-than-usual correction."
The bank attributed nearly all of its projected 23% appreciation through the end of 2027 to continued central bank purchasing. Monthly central bank gold buys are running at approximately 91 tonnes — well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes per month — providing a structural demand floor that Goldman expects to offset headwinds from higher U.S. interest rates.
Looking ahead, Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, a trajectory the bank sees as broadly supportive of gold once the tightening cycle concludes.
