Gold futures traded near the previous session’s lows on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran conflict reached its 193rd day and the yen extended a rally that began last week, according to an Investing.com commodities analysis. The analysis said traders have increasingly bet that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, and that the yen’s move toward its strongest level of the year helped weaken the dollar. Because gold is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback can make bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies, providing some support even as the broader macro backdrop remained challenging.
The analysis also raised the possibility that President Trump could adopt a post-9/11 military strategy if the current economic warfare approach against Iran proves unsuccessful. It said such a shift could make the global economic situation worse, adding to stagflation concerns and to expectations that central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve this month, may move toward interest-rate hikes.
Gold had fallen sharply last week and has since traded mostly around the $4,400 level, according to the analysis. The metal has remained in a relatively narrow range after rebounding from a floor near $4,000 in July. On the daily chart, the analysis said gold opened at $4,469, tested a high of $4,488.54 and a low of $4,442.94, and was trading at $4,436, below a key support level at $4,444. It added that the futures contract could move to test the next support at $4,399.16, where a breakdown could lead to a test of the 100 EMA at $4,378, which it said was already trading below the 200 EMA at $4,554.96.
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, holding above $97 a barrel, as investors weighed risks to Middle East energy supplies after Iran warned that oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could be targeted in retaliation for attacks on its assets. Brent crude futures rose 1.74% to $98.69 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 2.66% to $94.15, according to the analysis. Brent had settled nearly 1% higher on Monday after briefly touching $98 in the previous session.
The latest gains followed a weekend of tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran, including attacks on shipping. Iranian officials said U.S. oil and gas interests and other energy infrastructure across the Gulf were vulnerable to retaliation. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: “The oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure.” He added: “Strike our assets, and you get struck. We’ve already proven it.”
The Strait of Hormuz remained a key focus for oil markets. Iran said it will introduce a new restricted zone in the Gulf and an alternative shipping corridor, raising concerns that tighter maritime controls could slow tanker traffic. The proposed restricted zone would begin where the U.S. blockade of Iran ends and extend into the Gulf, Rezaei said earlier on state television. Iranian officials said vessels entering the zone could be placed on an Iranian sanctions list, while Tehran plans to announce maps for a new shipping corridor through the strait.
Diplomacy offered some counterweight: Iran said a deal with Oman over arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz was close, potentially providing a mechanism to ease shipping disruptions. Markets remained skeptical, however, that diplomacy would quickly end the wider U.S.-Iran confrontation. The conflict had already pushed Brent sharply higher, with the benchmark gaining 8% last week and WTI rising nearly 10%.
Houthi militants launched a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, injuring 73 people, according to Saudi authorities. The attacks targeted several locations in the kingdom and heightened concerns that the conflict could spread to Gulf states hosting U.S. military forces. The escalation came after U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday. Iranian state media said Iran had fired the Qassem Basir missile at several U.S. vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. military said its warships evaded the missile attacks.
According to the latest reports cited in the analysis, the United States is considering another post-9/11 strategy. Offices across the military and intelligence community have had quiet discussions about reducing the number of personnel and facilities typically stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration succeeds in ending the Iran conflict, six sources said. If those cuts happen, the analysis said it would mark another shift in how the U.S. national security apparatus treats a region that successive presidents have sought to leave behind. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, the U.S. expanded a constellation of permanent military and intelligence facilities to fight wars and conduct strikes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Yemen and Libya.
The analysis cautioned that any position in gold should be taken at the reader’s own risk, as the assessment was based solely on observations.
