Freedom Broker downgraded CF Industries Holdings Inc. to Hold from Buy on Wednesday, citing the normalization of nitrogen prices to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter.
The brokerage reduced its price target to $133 from $147, implying a 4.5% upside potential and a 2% dividend yield. UBS, maintaining a Neutral rating, raised its target to $123 from $115. CF Industries traded at a trailing P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.12x.
First-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $2.18 billion, up from $1.41 billion in the same period last year, while earnings per share totaled $8.71. For the second quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $1.19 billion, or $1.14 billion excluding $220 million in insurance proceeds, missing consensus estimates near $1.4 billion. Non-recurring items accounted for roughly $220 million of the quarter’s adjusted EBITDA. Quarterly EPS was $4.73 on revenue of $2.22 billion.
Operational metrics remained robust, with capacity utilization at 98% and free cash flow over the trailing 12 months at $1.82 billion. The company increased its dividend by 20% and has paid dividends consecutively for 22 years. Shares have surged approximately 47% to the upper end of their 52-week range.
Freedom Broker attributed the downgrade to nitrogen price declines, while Wolfe Research noted improved agricultural sector sentiment alongside rising U.S. and Brazilian commodity prices, leaving the outlook cautiously optimistic. UBS suggested current price levels imply two more quarters of excess earnings, balancing risk and return.
