Deere & Company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the market opens on Thursday, with Wall Street expecting a pullback from the prior period's strong performance.
Analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $4.69, down 1.3% year-over-year, alongside revenue of $10.81 billion, a 10% decline from Q3 2025. The company's shares, trading at $588.72, have gained 32% this year, outpacing the S&P 500's 14% advance. The stock carries a consensus price target of $646.75, implying roughly 10% upside potential. Of 24 analysts tracked, 13 maintain buy ratings, though JPMorgan's Tami Zakaria recently reduced her target to $570 from $590.
The outlook reflects broader pressures in North America's farm equipment market, where a 15% to 20% decline is forecast for 2026 amid lower commodity prices, elevated input costs and trade policy uncertainty. Deere's CEO John May has repeatedly described 2026 as "the bottom of the current cycle," signaling potential for accelerated growth once conditions stabilize.
Q2 results provided a counterpoint, with revenue of $13.37 billion exceeding expectations by 15%, though earnings per share fell to $6.55 from $6.62 a year earlier. The construction segment outlook was raised to 20% growth, supported by a stronger order book and infrastructure spending tied to data centers and public works projects. Early-order programs for North American agriculture are trending "flattish to slightly up," according to Zakaria, falling short of consensus expectations for roughly 8% growth in production and precision agriculture revenue in fiscal 2027.
Estimates for the upcoming quarter have shown limited movement recently, with EPS projections edging down 0.5% over the past two months and revenue estimates holding steady after a slight dip over 60 days. Investor sentiment ahead of the report is "skewed negative," Zakaria noted, despite the company's $159 billion market capitalization and strong year-to-date performance.
