Citigroup has identified Oracle as a buying opportunity following one of the most severe stock drawdowns in the company’s history, with shares plunging more than 50% over roughly 30 to 40 days. The selloff, described by the bank as a dislocation driven by investor capitulation and technical selling pressures, has left Oracle underperforming nearly all large-cap technology peers over the past three months.
The decline occurred amid widening credit spreads and at-the-market equity issuance, factors Citi noted have since begun to stabilize. The bank now expects forced selling to abate as bond and credit default swap spreads recover and investor expectations reset, setting the stage for a potential rebound. Citi has opened a positive catalyst watch on Oracle ahead of the company’s investor day scheduled for late October.
Citi raised its fiscal 2030 earnings per share forecast for Oracle to $22, above the company’s own target of $21 and the current consensus near-term estimate of $20. The bank maintained its price target of $330, reflecting confidence in Oracle’s ability to capitalize on strong demand trends observed in the neocloud sector. Oracle added more than $85 billion in sequential backlog during the May quarter, while neocloud providers added roughly $9 billion, underscoring robust pipeline growth across the technology infrastructure space.
Analysts point to insatiable demand driving pricing and margin upside in newly signed contracts, a trend Oracle is expected to mirror as it continues to secure long-term agreements. The bank’s upgrade reflects a view that the extreme drawdown has created an attractive entry point, particularly as broader market conditions stabilize.
