Chinese crude oil imports are projected to increase by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to energy consultancies cited by Bloomberg, though volumes will likely remain below pre-war levels.
Analysts from Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA estimate that refiners’ oil purchases could climb back toward 10 million barrels daily by year-end, with fourth-quarter import rates reaching 9.9 million bpd. This would still fall short of last year’s peaks, which ranged between 12 million and 13 million bpd.
The rebound is constrained by elevated crude prices, with Brent crude trading above $93 per barrel and the OPEC basket at $91.27. High prices are dampening appetite, particularly as China maintains a substantial stockpile built up over the past two years, exceeding 1 billion barrels in inventories.
Supply disruptions in the Middle East have also forced refiners to diversify sources. Chinese facilities, which predominantly process medium sour crude—historically sourced from the Middle East—are now turning to African and South American suppliers as Middle Eastern exports remain constrained.
Meanwhile, China is gradually replacing Iranian crude, which has been constrained by U.S. sanctions, with Russian oil. Kpler data indicates China is on track to import Russian crude at an average of 1.25 million bpd, down from 1.42 million bpd in July but still elevated compared with Iranian volumes. Iranian imports are estimated to have slumped to 340,000 bpd in August, according to the data.
“With the prolonged war and Middle East flows still disrupted, high crude prices are preventing larger demand drivers like stockpiling from taking place,” Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun told Bloomberg.
