European natural gas storage levels continued to trail seasonal benchmarks as of August 18, with inventories at 62% capacity, UBS data show. The deficit extends below last year’s 74% and the five-year average of 79%, underscoring persistent supply tightness ahead of winter.
Net injections into EU gas storage rose to 2.1 billion cubic meters last week, up from 1.7 billion cubic meters the prior week, but remained below the 2.3 billion cubic meters seasonal norm and last year’s 2.2 billion cubic meters. At the current injection pace, inventories are projected to reach roughly 72% by winter, falling short of the previous decade’s low of 77%. The European Commission has stated it sees no immediate supply concerns, though the EU’s target remains an 80% fill rate by the start of the heating season.
Gas prices reflected the tight inventory backdrop, with benchmark Dutch TTF futures trading in the mid-€60 per megawatt-hour range. Price volatility has been supported by geopolitical risks, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside seasonal demand factors such as hot weather in parts of Europe and Asia.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows into Europe increased 11% week-over-week but declined 9% year-over-year, according to UBS Evidence Lab data. U.S. LNG exports to Europe rose 21% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while Asian LNG arrivals fell 15% week-over-week and 6% year-over-year in the week ending August 15. Asia accounted for 41% of U.S. LNG cargo destinations, down from 43% the prior week, though weekly U.S. exports to Asia climbed 13% and surged 153% year-over-year.
In the U.S., natural gas storage rose by 16 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 14, below the 19 billion cubic feet consensus estimate. Total inventories stood at 3,169 billion cubic feet, or 74% full, 6% above the five-year average. In Japan, LNG stocks held by utilities increased to 3.1 billion cubic meters from 2.8 billion cubic meters the prior week, per METI data.
