Brazil’s soybean planted area is expected to remain virtually flat at 49.2 million hectares in the 2026/27 cycle, according to Agroconsult, as tighter credit conditions, elevated debt levels and shrinking profit margins discourage expansion.
The forecast, presented at a São Paulo fertilizer sector congress on Tuesday, implies a marginal increase from 49.1 million hectares in 2025/26. Soybean margins for typical producers in Médio-Norte de Mato Grosso are projected to fall to R$1,325 per hectare in 2026/27, down from R$2,262 in the current cycle and R$3,200 in 2024/25. During the 2023/24 El Niño season, margins plunged to R$754 per hectare.
Net debt to EBITDA ratios are forecast to rise from 2.1 times in 2025/26 to 2.8 times in 2026/27, reflecting higher leverage amid restricted financing access. André Pessôa, president of Agroconsult, described credit conditions as the most critical constraint for 2027, noting that Brazil’s interest rate environment remains incompatible with productive agricultural activity.
Fertilizer markets are also tightening, with Brazil’s total consumption expected to decline from 49 million tons in 2025 to at least 45 million tons in 2026. Imports are projected to drop to 38.4 million tons from 43.3 million tons in the prior year, partly due to disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in Iran.
Corn area is forecast to increase by 700,000 hectares to 23.3 million hectares in 2026/27, driven by expansion of the second crop cycle. Cotton acreage is expected to rise to 2.22 million hectares from 2.08 million hectares in 2025/26.
While commodity prices have stabilized and show signs of recovery for 2027, Pessôa cautioned that farmers may not fully benefit due to the need for advance commercialization. A more meaningful price rebound is not anticipated until the 2027/28 cycle. Weather risks persist amid divergent El Niño forecasts, adding further uncertainty to planting decisions.
Pessôa stated that Brazil is accustomed to annual soybean area growth of 500,000 to 1.5 million hectares but expects no expansion in 2026/27, describing the outlook as a repeat of the previous year’s planted area.
