Brazil’s benchmark equity gauge and the real held steady on Tuesday as traders positioned for a slate of U.S. economic releases and Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report after the close.
The Ibovespa’s mini-future contract remained trapped within a lateral band between R$167,000 and R$185,000, reflecting limited directional conviction ahead of key data points. The spot U.S. dollar traded near R$5.15, consolidating within a range of R$5.08 to R$5.22, with a narrower ‘minefield’ zone identified between R$5.12 and R$5.17.
Oil prices fell below $90 per barrel, adding to the cautious tone in risk assets. Meanwhile, Canadian authorities announced retaliatory tariffs totaling $19.94 billion against the United States, underscoring ongoing trade tensions that could influence global market sentiment.
Domestic data releases on Wednesday will include the mid-month IPCA-15 inflation print for August, followed by a series of U.S. indicators: the preliminary Q2 GDP estimate, the July PCE price index, the Q2 GDP price index and July durable goods orders. Additional U.S. data points include the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3, crude oil inventories and the 5-year Treasury note auction.
Foreign exchange flows in Brazil are also due for release at 14:30 local time, while Nvidia’s earnings report after U.S. markets close will be closely watched given consensus revenue projections of approximately $92 billion for the quarter.
On the corporate front, Braskem disclosed plans for an extrajudicial recovery of R$56.2 billion in debt, a move that has drawn attention to the company’s financial restructuring efforts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley maintained a 2027 price target of 215,000 points for the Ibovespa, though they characterized October’s elections as a binary event for market direction.
Brazil’s FGV consumer confidence index declined by 3.6 points to 84.7 in August, marking the lowest reading since November 2022. Foreign capital flows into Brazil recorded a net inflow of R$1.7 billion on the previous Friday, reducing the month’s cumulative outflow to R$21.4 billion.
In the U.S., the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 points in August, signaling softer household sentiment. Earlier this month, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that the global economy had shown resilience to the energy shock, supported by AI-related investments, though she cautioned that the shock had not been fully resolved.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested that interest rates may need to remain higher for longer if inflation persists, reinforcing expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve policy stance.
