Moderna shares surged 177% on Wednesday after Bank of America upgraded the biotech company to Neutral with a $170 price target, citing a breakthrough in its personalized cancer vaccine program.
The upgrade follows positive trial results for intismeran, Moderna’s adjuvant melanoma vaccine, which demonstrated a hazard ratio of 0.6–0.7 in recurrence-free survival. Analyst Alec Stranahan described the data as a "watershed moment" for Moderna, enabling the company to diversify beyond infectious disease treatments. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index rose 4.5% alongside the stock’s rally.
Bank of America raised its unadjusted global peak sales estimate for intismeran to $54 billion, assuming a 60% peak market share and an 85% probability of success in adjuvant melanoma. The firm also increased the assumed price point for the vaccine to $260,000. Moderna retains 50% of intismeran’s economics through a partnership with Merck.
The analyst noted that adjuvant melanoma is the most tractable tumor type for demonstrating benefit, with a positive readout in renal cell carcinoma expected within the next six months. Channel checks with payors indicate Moderna’s mFlusiva vaccine could begin reimbursement this fall, while the EU approval of mCombriax may provide a tailwind from 2027 as COVID-era contracts expire.
Stranahan acknowledged ongoing debates around label expansions and market uptake but stated that the company’s setup has "fundamentally improved" compared to 12 months ago, with potential for growth in both infectious disease and oncology.
