Bitcoin remained capped below $86,000 on Monday as traders assessed shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks in energy markets. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting rose to 59.8% from 41.4% a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, after remarks from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggested inflation progress remains insufficient despite recent easing in consumer price data.
Warsh emphasized at the Jackson Hole symposium that while inflation has fallen from 2022 peaks, underlying trends have not meaningfully improved, reinforcing expectations for tighter policy. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauges—July’s 0.2% monthly increase in the Core PCE and 3.2% annual rise—did little to temper hawkish sentiment. Traders will focus on U.S. employment data this week, including Wednesday’s private-sector payrolls and Thursday’s jobless claims, ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is forecast to show 50,000 new jobs in August after a June decline of 23,000.
Oil markets added volatility as U.S. strikes on Iran pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel and WTI neared $85, the highest levels in a week. The surge followed reports of a U.S.-backed energy deal granting Washington significant control over Venezuela’s oil reserves, with output targets of 1.5 million barrels per day and reserves valued at $5.4 trillion. European equities, including Germany’s DAX, slipped 0.7% as energy price spikes weighed on sentiment. Former President Donald Trump amplified geopolitical tensions by posting an AI-generated video depicting attacks on Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub.
Bitcoin’s weekly close defended its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,269 but remained below the $80,307 simple moving average on the weekly timeframe, a level Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft noted as a prerequisite for sustained upside. Analysts warned that BTC’s recovery faces stiff resistance between $81,000 and $86,000, where long-term holder cost bases and thick order-book liquidity converge. Glassnode data showed 1.05 million BTC held by long-term investors are concentrated in this range, while CryptoQuant reported that wallets with 100+ BTC added 60,000 BTC in August, offsetting sales from smaller holders who exited at breakeven levels.
The technical outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $80,000 mark before the August monthly close, which currently shows a 25% gain for BTC/USD. Failure to break above the macro downtrend resistance could extend the four-year cycle’s bear-market duration, according to trader Rekt Capital.
