Bitcoin is poised to reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, according to a new forecast from Bernstein, which cited the cryptocurrency’s marginal cost pricing model and its historical four-year cycle as key drivers. The firm’s analyst Gautam Chhugani projected a recovery to $150,000 by mid-2027 before climbing toward the peak target.
Bernstein framed Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of a structural shift it termed the 'debasement trade,' driven by the end of a 40-year decline in interest rates and soaring sovereign debt levels. The analysis argued that governments facing fiscal stress would likely prioritize currency debasement over austerity measures, given the latter’s political unpopularity.
The firm maintained an Outperform rating on MicroStrategy, though it reduced the company’s price target from $450 to $350. MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with approximately 4% of the circulating supply under its control. Bernstein emphasized Bitcoin’s reserve status, noting that about 60% of its capital base is held by price-insensitive investors, even during drawdowns exceeding 50%. The firm also highlighted the expanding accessibility of Bitcoin through institutional and retail channels.
