Bitcoin is poised to reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, according to a forecast from Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who cites a structural shift in macroeconomic policy as the primary catalyst.
Chhugani’s price-to-marginal cost framework anticipates a market peak of $300,000 by the end of 2029, with a recovery to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027. The outlook is underpinned by Bernstein’s view that policymakers will prioritize currency debasement over fiscal stress amid rising debt-servicing costs and widening deficits.
The firm describes Bitcoin as the leading "hard asset" immune to dilution, highlighting its expanding institutional and retail adoption. Roughly 60% of Bitcoin’s capital base is held by price-insensitive entities, even during drawdowns exceeding 50%, reinforcing its role as a long-term store of value.
Bernstein also notes that MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with about 4% of the global supply, faces a price target reduction to $350 from $450 while retaining an Outperform rating. The adjustment reflects the firm’s updated valuation framework rather than a change in its bullish thesis on Bitcoin’s role in a debt-laden macro environment.
The forecast assumes Bitcoin continues to follow its historical four-year cycle, with Chhugani’s projections contingent on a prolonged period of elevated sovereign borrowing needs and structurally higher interest rates after decades of decline.
