Arabica coffee futures in New York fell to a five-week low on Thursday, pressured by expanding Brazilian harvest forecasts and improving export momentum.
The ICE December arabica contract declined 2.75 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $2.9535 per pound after touching an intraday trough of $2.8975. Robusta coffee futures slipped 0.9% to $3,374 per metric ton, also marking a 2.5-month low.
StoneX raised its projection for Brazil’s 2026/27 arabica crop by 2.6% to a record 77.2 million bags, citing favorable weather conditions. Analyst Judy Ganes noted that rising warehouse inventories and accelerating exports in Brazil are easing immediate supply concerns tied to low certified stocks on ICE.
Raw sugar futures retreated from a 16-month peak after a sharp advance the prior session. The October contract fell 0.63 cents, or 3.4%, to 18.07 cents per pound, following a Wednesday close at 18.77 cents—the highest since April 2025. White sugar also declined 2.3% to $526.60 per ton.
The International Organization of Sugar (ISO) maintained a 300,000-ton global deficit outlook for the 2026/27 crop year, though analyst Michael McDougall attributed the sugar pullback to technical consolidation rather than fundamental shifts. Brazil’s Center-South production was down 7.9% year-over-year in early August, according to government data.
Cocoa futures eased from yearly highs in both London and New York. The London December contract fell £65, or 1.4%, to £4,514 per ton after reaching £4,988 on Tuesday, while New York cocoa declined 1.6% to $6,174 per ton.
Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa output is expected to drop between 18% and 38% due to aging trees, disease, and pollination failures, according to the state marketing company. Despite the decline, analysts note that ample global cocoa inventories and a projected small surplus for 2026/27 are expected to mitigate the impact of adverse weather patterns.
