Oil rises on supply concerns amid US-Iran deal uncertainty

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as doubts over the revival of a 2015 nuclear deal between the United States and Iran heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, gained 0.6% to trade at $82.45 per barrel by 09:30 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased 0.5% to $78.70 per barrel. The upward momentum reflected market anxiety over the likelihood of Iran resuming oil exports if sanctions are lifted under a renewed agreement.

Negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have stalled in recent weeks, with both sides citing unresolved issues. The U.S. has maintained economic sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, but a potential deal could ease restrictions and allow Iranian barrels to re-enter global markets. Analysts noted that even a partial lifting of sanctions could significantly increase Iran’s crude output, which currently stands at around 2.5 million barrels per day.

The uncertainty comes as OPEC+ continues to implement gradual supply increases, balancing efforts to stabilize prices amid fluctuating demand. The cartel’s latest policy, agreed in June, allows for a 432,000 barrels-per-day monthly increase in production through the end of 2022. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have introduced additional volatility to the market.

Investors are also monitoring broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation trends in major economies and central bank policy shifts, which could influence oil demand. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes have raised recession concerns, potentially weighing on energy consumption.

Market participants will closely watch developments in Vienna, where indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume. Any breakthrough—or further delays—could trigger sharp price movements in the near term.