Oil prices moved closer to $100 per barrel as prospects for a Middle East peace deal weakened amid renewed threats between the United States and Iran. At the time of the analysis, the international benchmark was trading at $97.66 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark stood at $93.05 per barrel, after Iran threatened the United States with economic warfare and said it had fired a new advanced missile at U.S. warships.
The analysis said prices were also supported by a fresh attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jizan refinery, a frequent target for Yemeni forces with a daily capacity of 400,000 barrels of crude. Iran also said on Monday that it would establish a new shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, a move the analysis said could make tanker traffic in the waterway more challenging than it already is.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, told Reuters that Washington had received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare would be met by a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter. He said the operational posture toward U.S. warships and bases had been recalibrated.
The warning followed an exchange of missile strikes on ships in the Persian Gulf, which the analysis said reinforced the perception that the conflict was not ending soon. Analysts cited in the analysis are beginning to forecast that the crisis could extend into 2027, prompting revisions to oil price forecasts.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note, quoted by Reuters, that a full return to pre-war throughput was not expected until late Q1 or early Q2 2027. ING analysts, also quoted by Reuters, noted that speculators had increased net long positions in Brent crude as the prospect of peace faded.
