The European Central Bank updated its wage tracker with agreements signed up to the end of August 2026 and extended the forward‑looking horizon to the end of June 2027. The tracker indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% for the first half of 2027.
Quarterly readings show the headline wage tracker at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, based on coverage of 32.5% of employees, and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027, with coverage of 25.1%. The smoothed one‑off payment component stood at 2.2% for 2026, derived from a 46.9% employee coverage.
Compared with the July 2026 release, the wage tracker with smoothed one‑off payments was revised down slightly for 2026, while the headline tracker remained broadly unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 despite the increase in coverage. The unsmoothed one‑off payments tracker moderated from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, and the measure excluding one‑off payments averaged 2.6% in 2026, indicating a limited role for one‑off payments in recent bargaining rounds.
Employee coverage for 2026 was 46.9%, falling to 32.5% in Q1 2027 and 25.1% in Q2 2027. The ECB notes that coverage will rise as additional wage agreements are signed, and the forward‑looking horizon will be extended further in the November and December 2026 data releases.
The ECB stresses that the forward‑looking component is not a forecast; it only reflects information currently available from active collective bargaining agreements and may be subject to revision. For a broader view of wage trends, the ECB’s September 2026 staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area show a yearly compensation per employee growth of 3.3% in 2026.
