XRP is closing in on a golden cross — the point at which an asset's 50-day moving average rises above its 200-day average — a pattern widely regarded by technical analysts as a long-term bullish signal. As of Thursday, XRP's 50-day average sat approximately 2% below its 200-day average, the tightest gap since the last golden cross formed in August 2024.
History offers a mixed picture for the pattern's reliability with this particular asset. Of XRP's 16 prior golden crosses, none endured beyond 12 months before being reversed by a death cross. Six failed to survive three months. Among the 10 that reached the three-month mark, five posted gains between 85% and more than 1,000% — including a 1,009.6% rally following the April 2017 cross and a 135% advance after the February 2021 cross — while five lost as much as 32%.
The setup arrives as Bitcoin's share of total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to under 59%, a one-month low, prompting a rotation into alternative coins. UNI, NEAR and ARB each surged nearly 30% in a 24-hour period as traders shifted allocation away from the largest digital asset.
Bitcoin itself traded near $78,000, roughly unchanged from a week ago, having absorbed this week's turbulence from a setback to the Clarity Act and a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. Analysts remain optimistic about its price prospects.
"Altcoins have accelerated sharply while the majors lag. Markets hope for SEC and CFTC crypto adoption, plus passage of the Bitcoin Reserve Bill," said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FxPro, noting that neither the altcoin season index nor broad market sentiment has yet reached elevated levels.
In fund flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $159 million in net inflows, offsetting outflows from rival assets. Ether ETFs logged roughly $39 million in outflows for a third consecutive session, while XRP-specific funds lost about $5 million after a small inflow the prior day.
In broader markets, Asian equity indexes rose on easing oil prices and a Wall Street rally, while European benchmarks slipped in early trading. Central banks continued to push rates higher to curb inflation, with the Bank of Japan lifting its policy rate to a 31-year high, sending the yen to its steepest daily drop since mid-February. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury said Iran has been funneling tanker tolls collected at the Strait of Hormuz — ranging from $1 million to $2 million per vessel — through the Tehran-based BitBank exchange since June.
