Oil traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls sharply despite reopening claims

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply in recent weeks, undercutting assertions that the critical chokepoint has fully reopened for maritime trade following regional tensions.

Data from shipping trackers and industry sources indicate a 15% drop in crude and condensate shipments transiting the strait in May compared with April levels. The decline follows a temporary rebound in April, when volumes had partially recovered after months of disruption linked to Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Analysts attribute the latest decline to a combination of sustained insurance premiums, rerouted shipping lanes, and lingering war-risk concerns among vessel operators. The strait, which carries roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil, remains a focal point for geopolitical risk despite recent diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional conflicts.

Maritime security firms report that some insurers have yet to reduce premiums to pre-crisis levels, while others have imposed new restrictions on coverage for vessels transiting the area. The uncertainty has prompted several tanker operators to opt for longer routes around southern Africa, adding an estimated $1.2 million to $1.5 million in additional costs per voyage.

The decline in traffic contrasts with public statements from regional officials claiming a return to normal operations. Shipping data shows that while some commercial vessels have resumed transits, the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments—a key export for Qatar—has also fallen by 12% in May compared with the same period last year.

The situation underscores the fragility of maritime trade in the Gulf despite efforts to restore stability. Industry executives warn that without sustained reductions in insurance costs and clearer security guarantees, the strait may not fully recover its pre-crisis transit levels in the near term.