Bitcoin (BTC) regained the $79,000 level on Monday, gaining roughly 3% after erasing weekend losses. The rally coincided with a decline in crude oil prices following U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the Iran war could be nearing its end.
At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading just above $100 a barrel and Brent crude around $105, down from earlier levels that had breached the $100 mark. The price pull‑back reflected market concerns that a resolution to the Middle‑East conflict could ease oil‑supply pressures.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 92.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting, up from 59.4% a week earlier. Markets are pricing the hike at a target range of 3.75%‑4.0%.
Trading firm QCP Capital noted that sustained high oil prices could feed into transport and logistics costs, potentially raising inflation expectations and limiting the Fed’s ability to pause tightening. The firm added that the focus is shifting from the binary question of whether a hike will occur to how policymakers frame the decision.
Bitcoin’s price action also intersected technical levels. The cryptocurrency moved back above its 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430 after briefly closing below it on Sunday. Analysts view the 50‑week EMA as a key support point for a longer‑term bullish trend.
U.S. equities opened higher but later turned red amid uncertainty over oil‑transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s East‑West pipeline and the Bab El‑Mandeb Strait. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% at the time of reporting.
The mixed market signals underscore the interplay between geopolitical developments, commodity prices and monetary‑policy expectations, all of which are influencing risk‑asset valuations including Bitcoin.
