Chile’s copper output to decline 2.6% in 2026, Cochilco forecasts

Chile’s copper production is expected to decline by 2.6% in 2026, according to a forecast released by the state copper agency Cochilco.

The agency projected output will total 5.75 million tonnes next year, down from an estimated 5.90 million tonnes in 2025. Cochilco cited aging mines and persistent water scarcity as primary factors behind the expected reduction in supply.

Chile, the world’s top copper producer, has faced challenges in maintaining output levels due to declining ore grades and operational constraints at key mining sites. Water shortages, exacerbated by prolonged drought conditions, have further pressured production capacity.

The forecast underscores broader concerns about the sustainability of Chile’s copper sector amid rising costs and environmental pressures. Industry analysts have warned that without significant investment in new technologies or mine expansions, production declines could persist beyond 2026.

Cochilco’s projections come as global copper demand remains robust, driven by the energy transition and industrial growth. The projected supply contraction may tighten the market, potentially supporting prices in the medium term.

The agency did not provide a detailed breakdown of the expected decline by region or mine, but emphasized that structural challenges in the sector would require coordinated responses from both public and private stakeholders.