Economy
Wolfe warns AI spending at risk as U.S. yields rise on Fed policy shifts
Analysts flag higher borrowing costs for tech firms financing AI expansion as Treasury yields climb. Nvidia earnings and Fed commentary loom.
U.S. Treasury’s buyback plan struggles to durably lower long-term yields: Barclays
Barclays warns the Treasury’s expanded long-end buybacks face an uphill battle to sustainably reduce yields amid structural pressures, including fiscal deterioration and AI-driven bond demand.
Barclays flags S&P 500 gains ahead of Fed hikes, small-caps lag
Analysis of five past rate-hike cycles shows the S&P 500 rose 2.2% in the three months before the first Fed move, while energy and industrials led sectors. Small-caps fell 7.2% in the quarter after tightening began.
UK growth outlook steady despite inflation uptick, Barclays says
Flash PMI data signals resilient activity in August, but inflation pressures and fiscal slippage weigh on outlook. Barclays lifts 2027 inflation forecast.
UK growth holds despite inflation pressures, Barclays says
Composite PMI rises to 52.5 in August as services lead; Barclays lifts 2027 inflation forecast to 2.5%.
UBS sees Swiss rents rising despite record-low reference rate
Swiss mortgage reference rate to stay at 1.25% through 2027, but new rental contracts remain 15% higher than five years ago as supply tightens.
Countries at Risk from Trump’s Iran Economic Penalties
Trump’s plan to impose penalties on nations trading with Iran raises concerns over potential economic fallout.
Jackson Hole looms as U.S. Treasury, Fed policy shift into focus
Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program frame a pivotal week for U.S. policy and markets. The dollar weakens as yields face pressure.
Poland retail sales rise 3.9% y/y in July, miss forecasts
July’s 3.9% year-on-year gain undershoots the 4.5% consensus as growth slows from June’s 6.2%. Fuel sales fell 0.2% y/y, while electronics and pharmaceuticals led gains.
ECB's Cipollone urges Single Market reforms to boost EU firms' competitiveness
Executive Board member highlights removal of internal trade barriers as key to scaling EU firms amid external shocks, while warning against over-reliance on monetary policy.
China’s netizens criticize professor over gig work remarks
Public backlash follows comments suggesting gig work functions as welfare.
Singapore core inflation slows to 2.0% in July, below forecasts
Consumer prices excluding housing and transport rose 2.0% year-on-year, undershooting market expectations as GDP growth accelerated to 5.9% in Q2.
Fed’s Kashkari says rising Treasury yields not a policy concern
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dismisses rising U.S. Treasury yields as a factor in monetary policy decisions, citing adequate market liquidity. Comments follow July dissent on rates amid persistent inflation concerns.
Turkey’s central bank to restart one-week repo auctions
The Turkish central bank will resume weekly repo operations at its 37% policy rate, ending a suspension tied to inflation risks from regional conflict. Governor Fatih Karahan said conditions had improved.
Kashkari says elevated U.S. Treasury yields not a policy concern
Minneapolis Fed chief downplays 10-year yield near 4.73% and 30-year at highest since 2007, citing ample liquidity and historical precedent.
Former UBS CEO backs Swiss regulator in dispute with bank
Oswald Grübel, ex-CEO of UBS and Credit Suisse, sides with Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter against UBS's pushback on stricter capital rules. He argues state oversight is essential to prevent systemic risk.
U.S. jobless claims fall to 206,000, below forecasts
Initial claims dipped to 206,000 last week, while continuing claims rose to 1.799 million. The data suggests a stable labor market despite July's unexpected payroll decline.
Japan factory activity accelerates in August as chip, AI demand fuels orders
Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in August, the fastest expansion in over eight years, driven by semiconductor and AI-related orders. Services and composite PMIs also strengthened, while cost pressures eased slightly.
Japan's core CPI rises to 1.8% in July, still below BOJ target
Japan's core consumer prices rose for a third straight month in July, though inflation remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a rate hike by September.
UK retail sales fall 0.5% in July as June surge unwinds
July decline follows June’s boost, with core sales down 0.9% and clothing volumes dropping 2.7%. Analysts cite demand pull-forward and weather effects.
BofA warns U.S. dollar could fall if Treasury bond intervention fails
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett cautions that a failure to cap 30-year yields below 5% could weaken the dollar, while global equity inflows hit a three-week high.
U.S. services sector drives faster business activity, S&P Global PMI shows
U.S. services PMI rose to 56.8 in August, the highest since December 2024, while the composite index hit 56.0, the strongest since April 2022. Manufacturing PMI fell to a five-month low of 53.2.
U.S. services activity accelerates to 20-month high in August: S&P Global
Services PMI rose to 56.8, the fastest since late 2024, while manufacturing slowed to 53.2. Composite index climbed to 56.0, signaling broad-based expansion ahead of the third quarter.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI hits 51-month high in August flash data
Factory activity in Germany surged to its strongest level since mid-2022, offsetting a fifth straight monthly decline in services as the economy shows uneven momentum.
Eurozone business activity hits nine-month high as manufacturing surges
Eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August, driven by the strongest manufacturing growth in over four years. Services activity remained stable at 51.7.