Economy
Brazil DI rates end little changed after IPCA-15, U.S. data
Brazilian interest rate swaps for 2028 and 2035 ended flat to slightly lower as inflation data and U.S. yields offset modestly. IPCA-15 surprised to the downside while core services firmed.
Brazil DI rates fall as U.S. yields, oil decline
Brazilian interbank deposit rates eased Tuesday as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and Brent crude retreated, while Copom rate-cut expectations firmed. DI Jan-2028 fell 8 bps to 13.80%.
Mexico's central bank lifts 2026 growth forecast, extends inflation target timeline
Banxico raises its 2026 GDP growth outlook to 1.5% from 1.1% while pushing back the timeline for headline inflation to hit its 3% target to Q4 2027. Core inflation forecast for Q4 2026 adjusted to 3.5%.
ECB seen raising rates in September as Iran war fuels inflation risks
Central bank officials plan a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% next month, citing energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and resilient economic activity.
U.A.E. to Review Banque Misr Over Iran Sanctions Allegations
The U.A.E. central bank will examine Banque Misr’s branches following U.S. Treasury accusations of Iran-related activities.
ECB seen hiking rates in September without forward guidance
Central bank expected to raise deposit rate to 2.50% next month as inflation nears 3%, but policymakers unlikely to signal additional tightening. Next week’s data release may influence decision.
ECB poised to hike rates in September as Iran war stokes inflation risks
European Central Bank expected to lift borrowing costs to 2.50% next month amid energy price pressures tied to regional conflicts. Inflation remains near 3%, while policymakers signal limited scope for further tightening.
Euro yields rebound after Schnabel warns on inflation fight
German two-year Bund yield rises to two-week high as ECB policymaker signals further rate hikes may be needed. U.S. Treasury yields also climb ahead of Jackson Hole symposium.
Bank of Korea lifts rates by 25 bps to 3.0% in second straight hike
South Korea’s central bank raised its key rate to the highest since early 2025 as demand-driven inflation persisted. Only one more 25 bps increase is expected by 2027.
Brazil raises floating-rate debt share forecast to record high
Treasury revises annual financing plan, lifting floating-rate debt projection to 49%-53% of total as borrowing costs remain elevated. Gross debt reaches 81.9% of GDP.
Brazil's IPCA-15 inflation slows further but services pressure keeps Copom cautious
August's IPCA-15 fell 0.40% on the month, exceeding expectations, while core services inflation accelerated. Policy makers face a delicate balance ahead of the September 16 meeting.
IMF warns global economy faces persistent energy risks amid fiscal strains
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the world economy has weathered recent energy disruptions better than expected, but warns of lingering inflation risks and rising fiscal pressures ahead of the G20 meeting.
Boston Fed's Collins signals possible rate hike if inflation stalls
Fed policymaker warns rates may need to rise soon if upcoming data fails to show sustained disinflation, as core PCE inflation holds near 3.3% annually.
Brazil’s election rivals clash over fixing long-term borrowing costs
Presidential rivals propose opposing strategies to lower Brazil’s 7.5% real interest rates amid rising debt levels. Lula’s camp favors bond buybacks, while the opposition insists on spending cuts.
IMF says global economy weathered Iran-linked energy shock better than feared
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cites drawdowns in oil and gas reserves, AI-driven growth and lower energy demand as key buffers against the Strait of Hormuz closure. Risks remain tilted to the downside.
Four regional Fed boards pushed for July rate hike, minutes show
Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis and Kansas City Fed directors voted to raise the primary credit rate by 25 basis points ahead of the July FOMC meeting, but were overruled in the central bank's 9-3 decision.
Brazil’s Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro camps split on tackling high long-term rates
Divergent policy proposals from President Lula’s campaign and Flávio Bolsonaro’s team highlight competing strategies to reduce Brazil’s elevated real borrowing costs, amid rising debt levels.
U.S. economic data dump Wednesday: GDP, durable goods and oil inventories in focus
GDP growth, durable goods orders and EIA crude stockpiles headline a busy U.S. data calendar. Markets await signals on inflation and economic momentum.
Brazil posts record July tax revenue as economic activity strengthens
Federal tax intake hit R$289.3bn, up 9.0% in real terms from a year earlier, as corporate and investment-related levies surged. Year-to-date receipts rose 7.0% to R$1.88tn.
SNB’s Martin says strong bank capital buffers not a competitive drawback
Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman argues robust capital levels help domestic banks weather downturns and gain market share from weaker peers.
U.S. jobless claims, Kansas Fed data headline Thursday's economic calendar
Initial jobless claims forecast at 208K, Kansas Fed composite index among data due before the Jackson Hole symposium. Natural gas storage, retail inventories also on tap.
Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro proposes public debt ceiling if elected
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign plans to introduce a constitutional debt ceiling that would trigger spending caps if gross public debt exceeds 65% of GDP. Adviser Adolfo Sachsida outlines the proposal amid Brazil’s rising debt burden.
ECB officials alarmed by U.S. policy shifts at Jackson Hole
European central bankers cite U.S. Treasury interventions and debt strategy changes as signs of rising transatlantic policy friction. Fed swap lines remain secure, officials say.
Brazil’s IPCA-15 seen at -0.31% in August on Itaipu bonus
Deflation forecast driven by temporary electricity discount; 12-month inflation slows to 4.34% as regulated prices fall. IPCA-15 release slated for Aug. 26.
Brazil's July federal tax revenue rises 8.97% in real terms, hits record
Federal tax collection reached R$289.3 billion, a record for July, driven by oil-related gains and broader economic activity. Adjusted growth excluding one-off oil taxes stood at 6.44%.