Economy
Dutch central bank shifts 86 tonnes of gold to London to boost liquidity
The Netherlands moved about 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to the Bank of England, raising its London holdings to 32% of total reserves while keeping overall reserves at 612.4 tonnes.
Key data and earnings to watch this week: US CPI, ECB rate hike, Oracle and Adobe results
US consumer price index is forecast at 3.4% YoY, the ECB is expected to lift rates by a quarter point, while Oracle and Adobe are set to report earnings and strategic financing plans.
Sentix eurozone confidence index rises to +5.1 in September, highest since Feb 2022
Sentix's September survey showed the eurozone business climate index jumped 4.2 points to +5.1, marking a fifth straight monthly gain and beating forecasts for a modest rise.
US Treasury Prepares First Bond Buyback Under Stepped-Up Plan
Scheduled implementation of the Treasury's buyback program accompanies ongoing international developments and market shifts.
Germany to Deploy Anti‑Sabotage Shield After Failed Drone Attack
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced a package of police, cyber and AI measures to protect airports, transport hubs and critical infrastructure from drone and sabotage threats.
Citi's 'Warsh Shadow Rate' gauges Fed hike risk ahead of September meeting
Citi research has built a 'Warsh Shadow Rate' using indicators from former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. The metric, near historic highs, signals a potential September rate hike and could pressure Treasury yields.
Europe's sovereign yields diverge as France and Germany face higher deficits
Ten‑year bond yields in France and Germany are nearing 2007 highs, while Spain and Italy remain below 2023 peaks, reflecting differing fiscal outlooks across the euro area.
Warsh shadow rate gauges Fed stance, Citi says
Citi Research's Warsh shadow rate, built from Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, tracks core inflation, money supply and jobless claims to anticipate 2‑year Treasury yields and Fed moves.
Iran security chief denies alleged plot to assassinate Barron Trump
Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei rejected claims of a plan to kill President Donald Trump's youngest son, while also outlining Tehran's conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Moody's downgrades Senegal to Caa2 as default risk rises
Moody's cuts Senegal's long‑term foreign and local currency ratings to Caa2, keeps a negative outlook and lowers country ceilings amid rising financing needs and fiscal strain.
JPMorgan projects ECB third rate hike to 2.75% in December
JPMorgan forecasts a third ECB rate increase in December to 2.75%, a near‑certain second hike to 2.5% next week, and a policy pause through 2027, with cuts unlikely before 2028.
UK Debt Management Office to auction £5bn of 4⅝% Treasury Gilt 2030 on Sep 10
The UK DMO will sell £5bn of 4⅝% Treasury Gilt 2030 in a one‑hour auction on Sep 10, with settlement on Sep 11 and a post‑auction option for up to 25% additional allocation.
Bank of England’s Pill warns higher rates may be needed to curb inflation
Chief Economist Huw Pill signals a prompt rate hike could pre-empt persistent inflation risks, as markets price a 15% chance of a move this month and over 70% by November.
Canada 10-year yield falls as global bonds rebound
Canadian government bond yields eased after a broad recovery in global debt markets, with the 10-year yield slipping below 3.8% amid shifting rate expectations.
ECB's Schnabel in talks to take IMF role, may leave early
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel is negotiating to head the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, potentially departing before her term ends. A departure would trigger a reshuffle of the ECB's leadership.
ECB seen raising rates once more in September before pausing: poll
Economists in a Reuters survey expect the European Central Bank to hike its deposit rate to 2.50% next week, marking its second increase in a brief tightening cycle. No further moves are anticipated through mid-2025.
Sweden's Riksbank flags uncertain inflation risks despite growth pickup
Sweden’s central bank governor says inflation pressures remain unclear even as GDP data points to a stabilizing recovery. The Riksbank will assess incoming data to guide policy decisions.
Putin says Russia’s budget deficit remains manageable despite 40% rise
Russian president cites low debt levels as justification for deficit expansion to 2.8% of GDP in January-July, despite war-related spending pressures.
HSBC lifts U.S. Treasury yield forecasts on shifting Fed expectations
Bank raises two-year and ten-year yield projections for 2026 and 2027, citing rising odds of a September rate hike and persistent fiscal deficits.
U.S. labor data, yen surge and oil steadiness in focus
Markets await Friday's jobs report as yen strengthens on intervention bets and oil prices stabilize after natural gas surges. Broadcom shares slip on cautious outlook despite earnings beat.
U.S. 30-year mortgage rate hits highest since July 2025 at 6.71%
Average rate rises 5 basis points week-on-week as energy-driven inflation pressures persist. Freddie Mac data shows mortgage costs climbing amid broader economic uncertainty.
U.S. trade deficit widens 24.4% in July to $88.6 bln
Goods trade deficit climbs 17.3% as imports surge to record $140.3 bln in capital goods. Oil and industrial supplies weigh on exports.
U.S. trade deficit widens to $88.6 billion in July as capital goods imports surge
The U.S. trade gap expanded by 24.4% last month, driven by a record $140.3 billion in capital goods imports. The deficit subtracted 1.14 percentage points from Q2 GDP growth.
U.S. services sector growth accelerates as ISM non-manufacturing PMI beats forecasts
ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in August, exceeding expectations and signaling expansion in the U.S. services sector for the 12th straight month.
U.S. services sector activity rises to 55.4 in August as demand strengthens
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbs to highest since February 2023, led by new orders surge; Fed rate hike odds rise ahead of September meeting.