Wolfe Research projected U.S. nonfarm payrolls to rise by 65,000 in August, exceeding the consensus estimate of 55,000, as the labor market shows signs of cooling. The firm also forecast the unemployment rate to increase to 4.16% from 4.09% in July, reflecting a gradual softening in hiring momentum.
Average hourly earnings growth is expected to accelerate on a monthly basis, rising 0.35% compared with the 0.2% consensus, though the year-over-year pace is projected to slow to 3.1% from 3.2%. Private payrolls are estimated at 75,000, while government hiring is seen declining by 10,000. Wolfe noted that the underlying hiring trend remains near the year-to-date average of 61,000 jobs per month, indicating a breakeven pace.
The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to add 5,000 jobs in August, supported by seasonal tailwinds, following declines of 43,000 in June and 40,000 in July. Wolfe attributed the prior month’s losses to seasonal adjustments and the unwinding of World Cup-related hiring effects.
Wolfe also highlighted a broader labor market trend, with the labor force shrinking by approximately 2.5 million this year, including a 1 million decline over the past two months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls data on August 28 at 10 a.m. ET, with Wolfe anticipating an upward adjustment of around 180,000 jobs, or roughly 15,000 per month.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s next policy decision, scheduled for September, will hinge on incoming inflation data, including the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index releases on September 10 and September 11, respectively.
