Wolfe Research downgraded Intuit to Peerperform from Outperform, citing concerns over the company’s strategy to target lower-income customers and weaker-than-expected fiscal revenue guidance for 2027.
Intuit’s stock has declined 45% year-to-date, trading at approximately $343. The firm reported fourth-quarter revenue of $4.354 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year and above expectations by 2.1%. Global Business Solutions Group revenue rose 14% to $3.424 billion, driven by mid-market products growth of 38% and online accounting segment growth of 20%. Credit Karma revenue increased 16.5% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations of 11.6%.
For fiscal 2027, Intuit projects revenue growth of roughly 9% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 11%. The midpoint of its guidance is $23.396 billion, representing 9.1% growth, while the fiscal segment is expected to grow just 2% year-over-year. Wolfe Research had anticipated over 5% growth in the segment. The company also introduced a new three-year compound annual growth rate target of 4% to 8% for its consumer segment, implying about 3% fiscal revenue growth.
The Global Business Solutions Group, excluding Mailchimp, is projected to grow approximately 13% year-over-year, with a three-year target of 10% to 15%. Credit Karma’s revenue is expected to rise 11.5%, while earnings per share growth is projected at 23% for fiscal 2027, with a commitment to sustainable high-teens growth over the medium term.
Other analysts adjusted price targets following the guidance. Truist Securities and Wells Fargo lowered their targets to $300, citing concerns over TurboTax growth prospects as the company loses share among price-sensitive taxpayers. Piper Sandler raised its target to $290, attributing the increase to higher free cash flow margins despite missed revenue expectations. Stifel also set a $300 target while maintaining a Hold rating. BMO Capital retained an Outperform rating with a $412 target, the highest among peers.
