Wall Street is shifting attention from Nvidia’s expected Q2 earnings beat toward the company’s growing exposure to AI financing commitments, which now total an estimated $200 billion by 2028.
Analysts at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have highlighted Nvidia’s role in arranging a $500 billion financing platform with six major U.S. institutions—including Apollo, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs—to support customers building AI infrastructure. The arrangement includes a $105 billion guarantee for OpenAI’s 20-year datacenter lease in Ohio, underscoring the scale of long-term commitments.
Nvidia’s Q2 revenue is projected to nearly double year-over-year to $92.18 billion, driven by a more than twofold increase in datacenter sales. The consensus for Q3 stands at $104.20 billion, reflecting an 82.8% year-over-year gain. Despite the strong growth outlook, concerns persist over the company’s off-balance-sheet liabilities, which analysts argue could introduce new risks if not properly quantified.
BofA analyst Vivek Arya emphasized that investors are prioritizing disclosure of these multi-year commitments, stating that quantifying the liabilities would allow the market to price in risks currently perceived as undervalued. Morgan Stanley initiated credit coverage of Nvidia on Tuesday with a neutral view, noting that while the company’s balance-sheet strength has become a strategic tool for AI financing, it also introduces opacity and sizable tail risks.
Nvidia’s stock rose 2.2% on Tuesday, ending a seven-session losing streak, and closed at $213.05. Options traders are pricing in a 5.4% swing in either direction following the earnings report, implying a potential $280 billion market-cap movement. Tech credit spreads widened to 89 basis points over Treasuries, 9 basis points above the broader investment-grade market.
The focus on Nvidia’s financing exposure comes as the broader AI buildout accelerates, with $220 billion in AI hyperscaler debt issued through early August 2026—$207 billion higher than the comparable period in 2025. Analysts caution that the early-stage nature of these commitments and their long-term horizons make risk assessment challenging, even as the company’s growth trajectory remains exceptional.
