UBS upgraded Glencore to Buy from Neutral, raising its 12-month price target to 650 pence from 620 pence, as stronger commodity prices and improved earnings outlook offset a recent share-price pullback tied to a legal dispute.
Shares of the miner closed at 549 pence on Thursday, having fallen more than 10% since late August when the dispute with Radiant World escalated. Radiant filed a $2 billion legal claim on Sept. 15, which Glencore has dismissed as meritless, stating its exposure to Radiant and related companies is not material.
UBS raised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates for Glencore by 5% and 7% respectively, noting about 15% upside to consensus 2027 EBITDA at spot prices. The broker expects free cash flow of approximately $10 billion in 2027 at spot prices, implying an 11% free cash flow yield.
Glencore's commodity basket is up roughly 20% year-to-date. Thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and zinc have each gained around 30%, while copper is up about 12%. UBS sees further upside risk to its 2026 and 2027 thermal and met coal forecasts, driven by supply disruptions and resilient demand.
Beyond commodity pricing, the upgrade also reflects stronger-than-expected performance in Glencore's Marketing division, better visibility on copper growth, progress on asset disposals, and expectations for higher shareholder returns.
