UBS upgraded Fluence Energy Inc. to Neutral from Sell on Tuesday, citing improved long-term revenue growth prospects despite a weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter performance and reduced guidance for fiscal 2026.
The Swiss bank raised its price target to $12 from $9, while maintaining a Neutral rating. Fluence Energy’s shares, which have fallen 45% year-to-date, were trading at $10.86 at midday in New York.
UBS also revised its adjusted EBITDA estimates for the company, forecasting a loss of $12 million in fiscal 2026, down from a prior forecast of $55 million. Projections for fiscal 2027 and 2028 were increased to $108 million and $115 million, respectively, from $92 million and $106 million. UBS estimates a five-year compound annual revenue growth rate of 22% through 2030 and values the company at roughly 16 times fiscal 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA.
Fluence Energy reported third-quarter revenue of $649.8 million, missing Wall Street expectations of $806.2 million, and posted adjusted earnings per share of negative $0.24 versus a projected $0.02. The company attributed the shortfall to production delays at new manufacturing sites, which it expects will defer sales into later periods.
Morgan Stanley maintained an Equalweight rating but lowered its price target to $15 from $16, while GLJ Research downgraded Fluence Energy to Hold from Buy with a $12.89 target. GLJ cited concerns over the company’s ability to convert its $6.4 billion in contracted work into revenue.
UBS highlighted demand drivers including battery storage growth tied to new solar-storage hybrid installations, retrofits of existing solar plants, and increasing demand from data centers. Morgan Stanley projects fiscal 2026 revenue at $3.02 billion with adjusted EBITDA of negative $7 million, while analysts tracked by InvestingPro expect 32% sales growth in the current fiscal year despite no anticipated profitability.
