UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo said the Federal Reserve’s 25‑basis‑point increase to a 3.75‑4.00% target range on September 16 represents a hawkish move that ends a prolonged pause, creating a near‑term headwind for gold as U.S. real yields and the dollar rise.
Spot gold was quoted at $4,312 per ounce on September 17. UBS noted that pullbacks toward $4,000 per ounce could provide buying opportunities.
In its 12‑month outlook, UBS forecasts gold at $4,600 by December 2026, $5,000 by March 2027, $5,200 by June 2027 and $5,400 by September 2027.
Central‑bank demand remains robust. In August, the People’s Bank of China added roughly 20 metric tons, extending a 22‑month buying streak, while the National Bank of Poland and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan each added about 8 metric tons. UBS expects annual central‑bank purchases of 750‑1,000 metric tons, providing structural support for the metal.
Staunovo concluded that the long‑term investment case for gold stays positive, with price pullbacks near $4,000 offering opportunities to add exposure.
