The Brazilian real gained ground against the U.S. dollar on Monday as tighter-than-expected polling ahead of the presidential runoff weighed on the greenback. At 9:38 a.m. BRT, the spot dollar traded at R$5.1738, down 0.43% from Friday’s close of R$5.1961.
B3’s September dollar futures contract fell 0.29% to R$5.1735, while the October contract declined 0.29% to R$5.2090. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major peers, eased 0.07% to 99.566.
Polling data from AtlasIntel and Bloomberg showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 47.1% of voting intentions in a hypothetical second-round scenario, down from 49.2% in July, while Flávio Bolsonaro held steady at 42.6%, compared with 42.9% previously. The margin of error was 1 percentage point. A separate BTG/Nexus poll placed Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, with a 2-point margin of error, indicating a technical tie.
Market participants cited month-end Ptax rate fixing dynamics as a contributing factor. The Ptax, calculated by Brazil’s central bank based on spot market quotes, serves as a reference for settling futures contracts, prompting traders to adjust positions ahead of the monthly benchmark. Analysts noted that a potential Lula re-election is viewed by some as negative for fiscal discipline, reinforcing a bearish bias for the dollar against the real.
Geopolitical developments added volatility, with Brent crude oil prices rising above $90 a barrel following U.S. military actions in the Persian Gulf. Despite the upward pressure on oil-linked currencies, the dollar continued to weaken against the real, South African rand, and Chilean peso.
