U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Iran to refrain from escalating activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site, following a series of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated, "We notice there's a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard," during the midterm Republican convention on Wednesday.
Pickaxe Mountain, located near Iran's damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, is considered one of the last remnants of Tehran's nuclear program. The U.S. has previously threatened to attack the underground tunnel complex, known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La in Farsi, due to concerns that Iran could revive its nuclear program.
An analysis of satellite imagery by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed increased road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026, surpassing any previous activity at the site. The analysis indicated a shift from active excavation to probable internal construction and continued exterior reinforcement. CSIS noted the suspicious nature of the activity at a site just 2 kilometers away from an old uranium facility at Natanz.
Iran has denied seeking nuclear weapons, and a spokesperson at Iran's embassy in London was not immediately available for comment. In June 2025, U.S. forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, which American officials stated had significantly delayed Tehran's prospects of building a nuclear weapon.
Iran announced on Wednesday that it had fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the week, U.S. Central Command forces reported the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers in response to Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeting a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice in two days.
The escalating tensions have raised concerns among energy market participants about potential supply disruptions. International benchmark Brent crude futures with November delivery traded 0.9% higher at $102.10 per barrel on Thursday morning, reversing earlier losses, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 1% at $97.01.
Trump expressed his belief that the U.S.-Iran war would not end until after November's midterm elections, stating, "I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer." He also acknowledged that some short-term economic pain for American consumers was justified to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Strategists at ING have warned that the oil market could tighten more sharply if the ongoing escalation leads to disrupted oil flows. The outlook and the momentum of this latest move will largely depend on Chinese buying behavior, according to Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a note published Thursday.
