Even a record-shattering El Nino event in 2026–27 would trim Asian liquefied natural gas imports by less than 1 billion cubic feet per day—roughly 1% of global LNG trade—according to a forecast by Bernstein analysts published Friday.
The research team examined how extreme warm-winter scenarios could affect demand across Asia, using Japan as a proxy given its heavy reliance on imported LNG and sensitivity to El Nino-driven temperature shifts. Under their super El Nino scenario, Japanese winter heating degree days would fall 19%, yet estimated LNG consumption would decline just 2%, to 9.1 BCFD.
The muted response stems from the large baseload component of LNG demand that is largely insulated from weather variability. Bernstein found a strong correlation between heating degree days and LNG consumption, but virtually no link between cooling degree days and usage.
Applying the same 2% reduction factor to the rest of Asia would cut regional imports by less than 0.7 BCFD. Historical annual swings in Asian LNG demand have ranged far more broadly—from an 11% decline to a 23% increase—suggesting that year-to-year weather variation falls well within normal volatility.
Structural and market factors are expected to carry far more weight on demand than temperature shifts. Those include storage levels, fuel-switching economics, LNG spot and contract pricing, coal market dynamics, and the risk of supply disruptions. Bernstein did not elaborate further on which of those variables might prove decisive in the coming year.
