The S&P 500 slipped 0.28% to 7,652.71 on Tuesday, leaving it 2.1% below its August 13 record close of 7,816.70, as investors weighed incoming economic data and corporate earnings against a backdrop of rising Treasury yields.
Technical levels are converging between 7,540 and 7,620, with the 7,560 mark highlighted as a key floor. This zone aligns with the daily S1 pivot at 7,620, the rising 50-day moving average near 7,624, and the June 2 high as well as mid-June and mid-July peaks. A Gann-line convergence also points to 7,560, reinforcing its significance. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 5.29% to 15.93, indicating modestly elevated intraday risk sentiment.
If the 7,560 support breaks, downside magnets include the 100-day moving average at roughly 7,380, a July low zone between 7,313 and 7,237, and the 200-day moving average near 7,100. To the upside, a sustained move above the record high could target the 8,000–8,075 range.
Multi-timeframe readings remain mixed: the daily chart shows a neutral signal with the RSI at 53.8 and the stochRSI at 16.5, while the weekly and monthly frames retain strong-buy signals despite overbought conditions on the monthly stochRSI at 88.4.
Key catalysts loom this week. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due before Wednesday’s market open. Nvidia is scheduled to report results after the bell on Wednesday, with Cantor Fitzgerald maintaining an Overweight rating and a $350 price target. The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday, capped by a keynote address from Fed Chair Warsh on Friday. Recent FOMC minutes indicated a division among officials over whether to delay rate hikes or maintain restrictive policy amid persistent inflation.
Market-implied probabilities suggest a 35% chance of a September rate hike, rising to 66% by December. The S&P 500 has retraced 1.4% from last week’s peak, leaving it within the 6,316.91–7,816.70 52-week range. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.734% ahead of the data deluge.
Analysts also note potential IPO-related volatility from Anthropic in the fourth quarter as an additional risk factor.
